Earthquakes and volcanic activity

Introduction

In the following paragraphs there are some notes on the causes geological phenomena (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions) - especially with regard to to the action of external gravitational influences (movement of the planets and the moon) and on the periods of their occurrence.

Design of functions that appear to be - especially for some of the larger geological phenomena - determining, can be read on the pages dedicated to the causes of solar activity:

In general

Manifestations of geological activity (earthquake, volcanic explosions, etc.) appear - at least at first glance - at random, without any obvious patterns. Location, time remoteness and intensity of events varies.

The general mechanism of the earthquakes is described by the so called Reid's theory of elastic alignments: earthquake is preceded by formation of cracks (future earthquake focuses) and gradually increased tension because of internal (endogenous) forces.

These factors are considered as possible causes of the increased tension:

• Geological activity - dependent on a number of factors (including the effects of humans - pumping diesel etc.).
• Gravitational action (Moon, Sun, or even some planets).
• Solar radiation (acting enegy - and thus the dimensional - changes in the subsoil).
• Weathering effects (hurricanes, cyclones,...)

Outline of cycles

Cycles of earthquakea and volcanic eruptions (documented and hypothetical):

• 0.5 day - volcanoe Galunggung y. 1822 - once a day and once at night.
• 12.5 days (solar half-round) - Karel Václav Zenger (1901)
• 14-15 days - period of so called neap tides (right angle Sun-Moon-Earth) observed at the volcanoe Stromboli (M.J.S. Johnson, F.J.Mauk, 1972).
  Eruptions after 14.7 days described also at the volcanoe Kilauea (D.Dzurisin, 1980).
• 27-32 days - lunar period - eg. earthquake 20.2.1835 appeared c. one month after several volcanic eruptions (Osorno, Aconcagua, Coseuina) 19.1.1835.
• 155 days - Rieger's periodicity - (quasi-)period R in solar electron fluence. According to some research, the period is shorter (155-165 days) in time of higher solar activity (cycle 16-23), and longer (185-195 days) during the weaker cycles (14-15,24).
• 365 days - one-year period of the Earth returns to perihelion (in winter, see eg. 26 December 2004 earthquake in Indonesia).
• 413 days - Full Moon with the Moon in its periagee (e.g. 1955, 1974, 1992, 2005, 2011,...)
• 434 days - Chandler's motion.
• 7 years - Etna (F.M.Bullard, 1976).
• 11-year period of solar activity - observed at the volcanoe Killauea, and also (statisticaly) by "mud" volcanoes of type G (Northern Italy, Sakhalin, Azerbaijan, Colombia, Romania,...).
  11.1 years (26*R=26*155 days=11.03 years)

  1839,01 1839 Jan  3 AD	 (1835-1839 Vesuvius - eruption)
  1850,13 1850 Feb 16 AD	 (1841-1850 Vesuvius - eruption)
                  

• 13 year period - at the volcanoe Kelut on Java (M.T.Zen, D.Hadikusumo, 1965).
• 132 years - at the volcanoe Killauea.
• 150 years - at the volcanoe Beerenberg - on Jan Mayen in North Atlantic (A.G.Sylvester, 1976).
• 200-300 years - at the volcanoe of Saint Helen (state Washington).
• 11150 years - lava outpourings in Iceland (I.McDougall, 1977).

6-years cycle?

Cycle of 6-years is known as the cycle of the moon libration in latitude. It makes approximately one-third of the Saros cycle (18.03 years).
When observing "moonquakes" seismic tidal maxima were registered in years 1970, 1976.
At about the same phase these earthquakes appeared:

• 1. 1.1916 Indonesia
• 28.12.1927 Russia
• 15. 1.1934 Nepal
• 27.12.1939 Peru, Turkey
• 28.12.1945 USA

Also e.g. interval of earthquake 1.1. 1837 (Palestina) and 5.1.1843 (USA) is 6-years and approximately also e.g. interval of earthquake 29.2.1972 (Bengal bay) a 24.3.1978 (South Pacific Ocean) and so on.
The same is true for Indonesian earthquakes:

• 12.12.1992 Indonesia
• 29.11.1998 Indonesia
• 26.12.2004 Indonesia

10-years cycle?

Karel Václav Zenger

Karel Václav Zenger (Václav Sixta, 1903) pointed on e.g. activity of volcanoes in years 1802-1803,1812-1813,1822-1823,..,1883,1902-1903. So called Deway 9.6 year cycle (with extremes in years 1944.0, 1953.6 and 1963.2) corresponds to this. Approximatelly the same length have also so called Juglar (9-10 years) economical cycles.

Period of 40-years (96*R)

Intervals of earthquakes

• 1923 - Kanto (Japan)
• 1964 - Alaska
• 2004 - Indonesia

and also e.g. intervals of eruptions of volcanoe Mont Pelé from y.1902 and y.1943 makes 40-41 years, i.e. approximately multiples of 13.5 years (see below).

1794,52 1794 Jul  5 AD	 (1783-1794 Vesuvius - eruption)
1834,68 1834 Sep  2 AD	 (1824-1834 Vesuvius - eruption)
        

1743,01 1743 Jan  1 AD  (1742-1743 Vesuvius - eruption)
1822,88 1822 Nov 16 AD	(1796-1822 Vesuvius - eruption)
        

12-years cycle?

Jupiter orbital period

Period 11.86 years. Its multiples 23-25 years period and 46-48 years period of "magmatic" volvanoes of type S (Caucasus, Turkey , Iran, Syria , Indonesia , Kamchatka , South America,...) and R (Arabian Peninsula, Africa, the Atlantic Ocean, the Azores, Iceland,...) Also e.g. 6 orbits of Jupiter = 71 years - Volcanic eruptions y.1812,1883, resp. 1831,1902.

1822,88 1822 Nov 16 AD	(1796-1822  Vesuvius - eruption) 
1834,68 1834 Sep  2 AD  (1824-1834  Vesuvius - eruption)
-----
1850,13 1850 Feb 16 AD	(1841-1850 Vesuvius - eruption)
1862,01 1861 Dec 31 AD	(1855-1861 Vesuvius - eruption)
            

Conjunctions Jupiter-Earth

Cycle of multiples 1.092066 years, ie.398 day conjunctions Jupiter-Earth.

Earthquakes:

1905,99 1905 Dec 25 AD    E:  94,8 J:  65,5 Moon: 270,4   
1933,16 1933 Feb 23 AD    E: 155,8 J: 168,2 Moon: 327,5
1950,62 1950 Aug 13 AD    E: 321,2 J: 332,1 Moon: 142,3
1960,40 1960 May 24 AD    E: 244,2 J: 267,2 Moon:  56,1
1963,72 1963 Sep 16 AD    E: 353,8 J:  13,0 Moon: 161,4
                        

1964,25 1964 Mar 28 AD  E: 188,7 J:  30,7 Moon: 196,6
1989,39 1989 May 20 AD  E: 239,9 J:  77,0 Moon: 240,7
                        

14-years cycle

Cycle 13.7-years (13.6-13.8, approximately 14 years, 1/3 of 40-y cycle. Components of the cycle:

1.71 years (4*R)

3.43 years (8*R)

1868,91 1868 Nov 26 AD   (1864-1868 Vesuvius - eruption)
1872,34 1872 Apr 30 AD   (1870-1872 Vesuvius - eruption)
            

6.85 years (16*R)

1761,02 1761 Jan  6 AD		 (1744-1761 Vesuvius - eruption)
1767,83 1767 Oct 27 AD		 (1764-1767 Vesuvius - eruption)
            

Note: 6.83-6.84 years is orbital period of some known comets:

• Comet 86P/Wild - perihelion c. 1940.02 + 6.84*k, the last 3.4.2015
• Comet 168P/Hergenrother - perihelion c. 1944.47 + 6.83*k, the last 6.8.2019

13.7 years (32*R)

• The average dormant interval of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii has been about 13.6 years during the past 1500 years.
• Solar cycle number 4 was the longest cycle on record, 1784 to 1798, having length about 13.67 years.
• Comet 8P/Tuttle - - perihelion c. 1939.77 + 13.66*k, the last 27.1.2008

27.3-27.4 years (64*R)

Interval of 3 big earthquakes of 20.century makes c. 27.15 years = 2*13.58 years.

• 31.01. 1906 Columbia (Ecuador)
• 03.03. 1933 Japan  (Honshu, Sanric shore)
• 22.05. 1960 Chile (south, Concepción)

1652,93 1652 Dec  1 AD	 (1637-1652 Vesuvius - eruption)
1680,25 1680 Mar 28 AD	 (1654-1680 Vesuvius - eruption)
1707,65 1707 Aug 22 AD	 (1701-1707 Vesuvius - eruption)
----
1822,88 1822 Nov 16 AD	(1796-1822 Vesuvius - eruption)
1850,13 1850 Feb 16 AD  (1841-1850 Vesuvius - eruption)
----
1834,68 1834 Sep  2 AD	 (1824-1834 Vesuvius - eruption)
1862,01 1861 Dec 31 AD	 (1855-1861 Vesuvius - eruption)
        

Correlation with other cycles

• 27 years: Moon eclipses of stars (65-2*19 years)
• M-E synchronization, 85*(M,E)
• 27.047 years: 38 tzolkin = 38*0.71177 years
• 27.16 years: 64 * 155 days = 9920 days, solar eruptions
• 27.18 years: 17*(E,V)=17*1.59867
• 27.30 years: 25*(E,J)=25*1.092066
• 27.32 years (18.61,11.07)
• 27.62 years: 2*(J,U)=2*13.81 years
• 27.80304 years: Sun Spot Cycle spectral peek, Fairbridge,1997 (Schove data)

14 year cycle was documented also as climatic (from analysis of treerings) by A.E.Douglass (2011).

Correlation with terrestrial events

Opposition J-U  Event (earthquakes) Power (number of victims)    
-------------------------------------------------------------
1755.22     
    1755  Portugal (Lisbon+tsunami)  8.7 (100 thousand)
    1755  Boston
    1755  Italy - volcano Vesuvius
1769.02 
    1768  Sicily – volcano Stromboli
1782.82     
    1782  China, Taiwan (tsunami) (40 thousand)
    1783  Island – volcano Laki (9 thousand)         
    1783  Italy (Calabria) (50 thousand)
    1783  Japan - volcano Asama
1796.65 
    1797  Ecuador (Quito,4.2)
1810.45     
    1810  Crete (16.2)
    1811  Hawaii - volcano Mont Pele, Mauna Loa       
    1811  Azores islands - volcano San Miguel
    1811  Java - volcano Kelut                        
    1812  Missouri (New Madrid, 23.1,7.2.) 9.0
1824.27 
    1823  Hawaii - volcano Kilauea
1838.07     
    1838  Russia (Moldavia, 23.1)
    1838  California (San Francisco)    8.0           
    1838  Italy - volcano Vesuvius
1851.90      
    1851  Martinique - volcano Mont Pele      
    1852  Sicily – volcano Etna (nearly whole year)
1865.70     
    1865  Sicily – volcano Etna (c. 100 eruptions) 
1879.53      
    1880  Romania (Transylvania 25.12.)
1893.33     
    1893  California
    1893  Romania (Transylvania 17.8.)
1907.15 
    1906  Italy - volcano Vesuvius
    1906  California (San Francisco, 18.4.)   8.2 (1 thousand)
    1906  Chile       8.4                     
    1906  Ecuador – volcano Cotopaxi,  
    1907  Sicily – volcano Stromboli          
    1908  Italy (Messina, +tsunami)  7.2 (72 thousand)

Opposition J-U  Event (earthquakes) Power (number of victims)    
-------------------------------------------------------------
1920.95     
    1920  China (Halyuan, Ningxia) 7.8 (200 thousand)
    1920  Alaska – volcano Katmai
1934.77 
    1935  Indie, Pakistan 7.6 (30 thousand)
    1935  Japan - volcano Asama                       
    1935  Hawaii - volcano Mont Pele, Mauna Loa
1948.58     
    1948  Island – volcano Hekla
    1948  Turkmenistan  7.3    (110 thousand)         
    1948  Japan (Fukui 28.6.) 7.3 
    1949  Hawaii - volcano Mont Pele, Mauna Loa       
    1949  Sicily – volcano Stromboli
1962.37 
    1962  Alaska – volcano Katmai
    1963  Indonesia, Bali – volcano Agung (1 thousand)
    1963  Vestman islands - volcano Surtsey (vznik)   
    1963  Hawaii – volcano Kilauea
1976.20     
    1976  China (Tang-šan 28.7.) 7.5 (255 thousand)
1990.03    
    1989  San Francisco
    1990  West Iran     7.4    (40 thousand)          
    1991  Philippine – volcano Pinatubo
2003.83
    2004  Sumatra (earthquakes+tsunami) 9.1 (283 thousand)
2017.63   
2031.45  
2045.25  

Jupiter-Uran?

According to this table, it would seem that the cycle of events correlates with a 13.81-year cycle of (heliocentric) Jupiter-Uranus oppositions. But this is probably not true, the cycle is shorter (approximately 13.7-years?) and independent of the mutual position of the planets Jupiter-Uranus.

Extrapolation?

From sequence 1906-1908, 1920, 1933-1935, 1948, 1960-1962, 1974-1976, 1988-1990, 2002-2004, 2016-2018,... it follows 2029-2031, 2043-2045, 2056-2058 and so on. For the December 2017 earthquake is forecasted by Umesh Prasad Verma.

Earthquakes of Japan history:

• 27.5.1293 - Kamakura
• 3.8.1361 - Shõhei
• 11.9.1498 - Meiõ Nankaidõ

Theory of Hirosi Kawasumi:

The author of this theory seeks to prove the validity of 69-year period (69 * 5 = 13.8 years).
We observe the distance approx. 68 years eg. in explosions of the years 1815 (Tambora) and 1883 (Karakatoa).