Earthquakes and volcanic activity


Introduction

Manifestations of geological activity (earthquake, volcanic explosions, etc.) appear - at least at first glance - at random, without any obvious patterns. Location, time remoteness and intensity of events varies.

The general mechanism of the earthquakes is described by the so called Reid's theory of elastic alignments: earthquake is preceded by formation of cracks (future earthquake focuses) and gradually increased tension because of internal (endogenous) forces.

These factors are considered as possible causes of the increased tension:

Outline of cycles

Cycles of earthquakea and volcanic eruptions (documented and hypothetical):

6-years cycle?

Cycle of 6-years is known as the cycle of the moon libration in latitude. It makes approximately one-third of the Saros cycle (18.03 years).
When observing "moonquakes" seismic tidal maxima were registered in years 1970, 1976.
At about the same phase these earthquakes appeared:

Also e.g. interval of earthquake 1.1. 1837 (Palestina) and 5.1.1843 (USA) is 6-years and approximately also e.g. interval of earthquake 29.2.1972 (Bengal bay) a 24.3.1978 (South Pacific Ocean) and so on.
The same is true for Indonesian earthquakes:

10-years cycle?

Karel Václav Zenger

Karel Václav Zenger (Václav Sixta, 1903) pointed on e.g. activity of volcanoes in years 1802-1803,1812-1813,1822-1823,..,1883,1902-1903. So called Deway 9.6 year cycle (with extremes in years 1944.0, 1953.6 and 1963.2) corresponds to this. Approximatelly the same length have also so called Juglar (9-10 years) economical cycles.

Period of 40-years (96*R)

Intervals of earthquakes

and also e.g. intervals of eruptions of volcanoe Mont Pelé from y.1902 and y.1943 makes 40-41 years, i.e. approximately multiples of 13.5 years (see below). 40 years
1794,52 1794 Jul  5 AD	 (1783-1794 Vesuvius - eruption)
1834,68 1834 Sep  2 AD	 (1824-1834 Vesuvius - eruption)
        
80 years
1743,01 1743 Jan  1 AD  (1742-1743 Vesuvius - eruption)
1822,88 1822 Nov 16 AD	(1796-1822 Vesuvius - eruption)
        

12-years cycle?

Jupiter orbital period

Period 11.86 years. Its multiples 23-25 years period and 46-48 years period of "magmatic" volvanoes of type S (Caucasus, Turkey , Iran, Syria , Indonesia , Kamchatka , South America,...) and R (Arabian Peninsula, Africa, the Atlantic Ocean, the Azores, Iceland,...) Also e.g. 6 orbits of Jupiter = 71 years - Volcanic eruptions y.1812,1883, resp. 1831,1902.

1822,88 1822 Nov 16 AD	(1796-1822  Vesuvius - eruption) 
1834,68 1834 Sep  2 AD  (1824-1834  Vesuvius - eruption)
-----
1850,13 1850 Feb 16 AD	(1841-1850 Vesuvius - eruption)
1862,01 1861 Dec 31 AD	(1855-1861 Vesuvius - eruption)
            

Conjunctions Jupiter-Earth

Cycle of multiples 1.092066 years, ie.398 day conjunctions Jupiter-Earth.

Earthquakes:

Conjunctions Sun-Moon-E-J (Sun-E-Moon-J)
1905,99 1905 Dec 25 AD    E:  94,8 J:  65,5 Moon: 270,4   
1933,16 1933 Feb 23 AD    E: 155,8 J: 168,2 Moon: 327,5
1950,62 1950 Aug 13 AD    E: 321,2 J: 332,1 Moon: 142,3
1960,40 1960 May 24 AD    E: 244,2 J: 267,2 Moon:  56,1
1963,72 1963 Sep 16 AD    E: 353,8 J:  13,0 Moon: 161,4
                        
Conjunctions J-Sun-E-Moon (J-Sun-Moon-E)
1964,25 1964 Mar 28 AD  E: 188,7 J:  30,7 Moon: 196,6
1989,39 1989 May 20 AD  E: 239,9 J:  77,0 Moon: 240,7
                        

14-years cycle

Cycle 13.7-years (13.6-13.8, approximately 14 years, 1/3 of 40-y cycle. Components of the cycle:

1.71 years (4*R)

3.43 years (8*R)

1868,91 1868 Nov 26 AD   (1864-1868 Vesuvius - eruption)
1872,34 1872 Apr 30 AD   (1870-1872 Vesuvius - eruption)
            

6.85 years (16*R)

1761,02 1761 Jan  6 AD		 (1744-1761 Vesuvius - eruption)
1767,83 1767 Oct 27 AD		 (1764-1767 Vesuvius - eruption)
            
see e.g. e_california_2011

13.7 years (32*R)

27.3-27.4 years (64*R)

Interval of 3 big earthquakes of 20.century makes c. 27.15 years = 2*13.58 years.
(extrapolation 1974.0, 1987.6, 2001.2, 2014.8, 2028.4, 2042.0, ...)
1652,93 1652 Dec  1 AD	 (1637-1652 Vesuvius - eruption)
1680,25 1680 Mar 28 AD	 (1654-1680 Vesuvius - eruption)
1707,65 1707 Aug 22 AD	 (1701-1707 Vesuvius - eruption)
----
1822,88 1822 Nov 16 AD	(1796-1822 Vesuvius - eruption)
1850,13 1850 Feb 16 AD  (1841-1850 Vesuvius - eruption)
----
1834,68 1834 Sep  2 AD	 (1824-1834 Vesuvius - eruption)
1862,01 1861 Dec 31 AD	 (1855-1861 Vesuvius - eruption)
        

Correlation with other cycles

14 year cycle was documented also as climatic (from analysis of treerings) by A.E.Douglass (2011).

Correlation with terrestrial events

Opposition J-U  Event (earthquakes) Power (number of victims)    
-------------------------------------------------------------
1755.22     
    1755  Portugal (Lisbon+tsunami)  8.7 (100 thousand)
    1755  Boston
    1755  Italy - volcano Vesuvius
1769.02 
    1768  Sicily – volcano Stromboli
1782.82     
    1782  China, Taiwan (tsunami) (40 thousand)
    1783  Island – volcano Laki (9 thousand)         
    1783  Italy (Calabria) (50 thousand)
    1783  Japan - volcano Asama
1796.65 
    1797  Ecuador (Quito,4.2)
1810.45     
    1810  Crete (16.2)
    1811  Hawaii - volcano Mont Pele, Mauna Loa       
    1811  Azores islands - volcano San Miguel
    1811  Java - volcano Kelut                        
    1812  Missouri (New Madrid, 23.1,7.2.) 9.0
1824.27 
    1823  Hawaii - volcano Kilauea
1838.07     
    1838  Russia (Moldavia, 23.1)
    1838  California (San Francisco)    8.0           
    1838  Italy - volcano Vesuvius
1851.90      
    1851  Martinique - volcano Mont Pele      
    1852  Sicily – volcano Etna (nearly whole year)
1865.70     
    1865  Sicily – volcano Etna (c. 100 eruptions) 
1879.53      
    1880  Romania (Transylvania 25.12.)
1893.33     
    1893  California
    1893  Romania (Transylvania 17.8.)
1907.15 
    1906  Italy - volcano Vesuvius
    1906  California (San Francisco, 18.4.)   8.2 (1 thousand)
    1906  Chile       8.4                     
    1906  Ecuador – volcano Cotopaxi,  
    1907  Sicily – volcano Stromboli          
    1908  Italy (Messina, +tsunami)  7.2 (72 thousand)
Opposition J-U  Event (earthquakes) Power (number of victims)    
-------------------------------------------------------------
1920.95     
    1920  China (Halyuan, Ningxia) 7.8 (200 thousand)
    1920  Alaska – volcano Katmai
1934.77 
    1935  Indie, Pakistan 7.6 (30 thousand)
    1935  Japan - volcano Asama                       
    1935  Hawaii - volcano Mont Pele, Mauna Loa
1948.58     
    1948  Island – volcano Hekla
    1948  Turkmenistan  7.3    (110 thousand)         
    1948  Japan (Fukui 28.6.) 7.3 
    1949  Hawaii - volcano Mont Pele, Mauna Loa       
    1949  Sicily – volcano Stromboli
1962.37 
    1962  Alaska – volcano Katmai
    1963  Indonesia, Bali – volcano Agung (1 thousand)
    1963  Vestman islands - volcano Surtsey (vznik)   
    1963  Hawaii – volcano Kilauea
1976.20     
    1976  China (Tang-šan 28.7.) 7.5 (255 thousand)
1990.03    
    1989  San Francisco
    1990  West Iran     7.4    (40 thousand)          
    1991  Philippine – volcano Pinatubo
2003.83
    2004  Sumatra (earthquakes+tsunami) 9.1 (283 thousand)
2017.63   
2031.45  
2045.25  

Jupiter-Uran?

According to this table, it would seem that the cycle of events correlates with a 13.81-year cycle of (heliocentric) Jupiter-Uranus oppositions. But this is probably not true, the cycle is shorter (approximately 13.7-years?) and independent of the mutual position of the planets Jupiter-Uranus.

Extrapolation?

From sequence 1906-1908, 1920, 1933-1935, 1948, 1960-1962, 1974-1976, 1988-1990, 2002-2004, 2016-2018,... it follows 2029-2031, 2043-2045, 2056-2058 and so on. For the December 2017 earthquake is forecasted by Umesh Prasad Verma.

Earthquakes of Japan history:

Intervals of these 3 earthquakes makes 68.2 years and 137.1 years, i.e. multiples of 13.7 years

Theory of Hirosi Kawasumi:

The author of this theory seeks to prove the validity of 69-year period (69 * 5 = 13.8 years).
We observe the distance approx. 68 years eg. in explosions of the years 1815 (Tambora) and 1883 (Karakatoa).