Solar activity - Cycles

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The main solar activity cycles are Wolf's 11-years and Hale's 22-years cycle
The last maxima of Wolf's cycle were in years 1979, 1989 and 2000 (List_of_solar_cycles).

Observation of sunspots

Schwabe, Heinrich Samuel
Schwabe, Heinrich Samuel 1789-1875, amateur astronomer and botanist. Since 1826, he started (in an effort to find intra-merkurial planet Vulcan) the detailed observations of the Sun. After years of observation in y.1843 he noticed a significant ten-year period of the occurrence of sunspots.
Schwabe's period
Period of ten-years


Wolf, Rudolf
Wolf, Rudolf, 1816-1893, Swiss astronomer, organizer of the first international project for tracking sunspots. Reconstructed solar activity back to y.1730 and adjusted mean sunspot period to about 11 years.
Wolf‘s period
Half of Wolf’s period
Also referred to as a 5-6 year Hellmann's period.


Hale, George Ellery
Hale, George Ellery, 1868-1938, American astronomer. He derived - based on observations of magnetic fields on the Sun - 22-year cycle.
Hale‘s period
Abbot's period

Gleissberg cycle

Cycle of solar activity, usually given to be 80-90-years (70-100 years)   ( Solar_variation),
discovered by  Wolfgang Gleißberg during research of the solar activity.
Gleissberg observed 17 cycles from the year 290 AD (with mean duration c. 78 years), see below.
Length of the cycle is not constant - it varies quite considerably (approximatelly 85 ± 15 years).
Chandler's period
Gleissberg's period

Timing

The last maxima of Gleissberg cycle appeared approximately in years:
    1710-1720, 1760-1770, 1840-1850 and 1950-1960..
The last minima of Gleissberg cycle then fit 
approximately to years:
1740, 1810, 1900.

Pull of Saturn, Uranus and Neptune

Configurations S-UN and SUN follows each other with period c. 18-21 years. So the interval of two configurations SUN is 2 times longer, i.e. approximately 40 years (e.g.1672 minus 1630 or 1851 minus 1810). 
Now, years us consider configurations (not necessarily exactly aligned), in which the planets S,U and N “pull against” Jupiter (like three men with ropes)  from the opposite site of the Sun. 
Allowing wider angles (max c.60 dg from the exact oppositions on both sides) the set of configurations J-SUN extends to (years): 1630-1670-(1711),(1770)-1810-1850, 1950-1990-2030.

Gleissberg extremes

The first 2 triads (1630-1711, 1770-1850) corresponds to Gleissberg extremes:

The year 1711

We mark (by red) the year 1711 as maximum here, because it ends the Maunder minimum.
But it is sometimes considered to be minimum.
So, probably, it is passing point - see the graph from the work of Prof.Silvia Duhau:

gleissberg01

Symetrical configuration

In some cases are "the ropes" of planets Uranus and Neptune nearly perpendicular to "ropes" of Jupiter and Saturn. E.g around the minimum 1890-1910:

Here are written some 100-year intervals, where no configuration J-SUN or only some weak configrations can be found: 660-760, 840-940, 1020-1120, 1160-1270, 1350-1450, 1530-1630, 1670-1770, 1850-1950.

Dificulty of prediction

Special alignment of the year 1990 reminds the year 1810, i.e. Gleissberg minimum.
But was the activity of the 1990 really longterm minimum? Do we have to expect maximum around the year 2030?

History

These intervals follows from the previous schemes:
580-620-660, 760-800-840, 940-980-1020, 1120-1160, 1270-1310-1350, 1450-1490-1530,
(look on the Gleissberg cycles and some 180-year cycles...)



Gleissberg's extremes
Gleissberg (1965)
Gleissberg U#N J - SUN
? 64 84
? 150 124
? 236 263
360 322 303
440 409 443
510 495 483
575 581 583
665 667 662
755 754 762
840 839 801
920 926 941
990 1011 980
1115 1098 1120
1185 1183 1174
1250 1270 1299
1305 1270 1299
1375 1355 1353
1455 1441 1453
1545 1527 1491
1605 1613 1632
1715 1698 1671
1765 1784 1771
1840 1869 1851
1955 1955 1950
? 2041 2029

Kondratiev's cycle

Cycle of about 50-60 years, usually cited as of 54-year, see Kondratieff cycles , Kondratiev wave . The cycle was observed by Russian economist Kondratiev (Nikolai Kondratiev 1892-1938) and further studied by the American economist Dewey (Edward R.Dewey, 1895-1978).
It maybe linked with the 55-year cycle of solar activity.
The last extremes of the Kondratiev cycle were approximately in the years:
1810,1865,1920,1975 (maximum), 1835,1890,1945,2000 (minimum).
Cycle 55 years
The period was observed in the following phenomena:
Martin Roy on Solar Activity

Opposition Jupiter-Uranus

Mean period of 4 conjunctions J-U is 4*(J,U)=4*13.81=55.24 years:

Minima
29.4.1893 27.7.1948 31.10.2003

outer18930429 outer19480727 outer20031031

Maxima
16.12.1920 14.3.1976 12.6.2031

outer19201216 outer19760314 outer20310612

(http://dollarcollapse.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/Kondratieff.jpg)

kondratieff.jpg

110-year period and its multiples

Cycle 110.5 years

Minimum period 10 W ~ 110.3-110.6 years (i.e. c.10 W) appears in repetition of oppositions VEJ against U (e.g. about 1727.87, 1838.17 or 2058.78). Divisor of this period is also – excepting (J,U) - period 10.05 years of conjunctions (V,R),(R,S) and (V,S) (in relation to solar maximum y.1727.1). Wood‘s resonance
Year

∆LJU

LW[˚]

643.85

 3

 9

753.59

-4

10

863.92

-1

 9

974.97

-5

-7

1085.42

-9

 2

1195.35

-9

-2

1306.56

0

-8

1416.79

-5

-9

1527.02

4

-9

1637.71

-5

-9

  Let  Lw = 3*LV-5*LE+2*LJ [˚] .  Period of Wood’s resonance (see Solar activity)  makes 11.06753 years. So with period 8*(J,U)=110.5 years value Lw returns to ~0 ˚.

 (V/3,-E/5,J/2) = 22.135 years = 110.68 years/5 

Resonance E-R

Year

∆LJU

LER[˚]

1278.11

-4

-2

1389.38

-1

-10

1499.69

-5

-8

 (E,R/2) = (1.00000,1.88085/2) = 15.781 years = 110.47 years/7 

Synchronization J-U a R-S?
Synodic period (R,S) = 2.009131627 fits (by 55 multiple) into 110.5 years period.     16.12.1920
syst19201216 Oppositions R-S coincide with oppositions J-U in years:
594.9, 705.47, 815.99, 926.48, 1036.96, 1147.48, 1257.98, 1368.46, 1478.97, 1589.47, 1699.95, 1810.46, 1920.96, 2031.45, 2141.95.

Some of the data (e.g.1699.95, 1810.46, 1920.96) point to periods with locally lower Solar activity. The last know decrease of solar activity is from the beginning of 20-th century.
Conjunctions J-X
Period 110.5 years coincide approximately with 9 conjunctions J-X (see Planet X)

 9 * (J,X) = 9*12.2368 years = 110.13 years 

E.g.   1686,12 (   12,27)  1698,38 (   12,27)  1710,65 (   12,24) 

  1722,89 (   12,27)  1735,15 (   12,24)  1747,39 (   12,24) 

  1759,63 (   12,21)  1771,84 (   12,21)  1784,05 (   12,21)

  1796,26

31.1.1686  13.6.1796

syst16860131   syst17960613

Cycle 221 years

Timo Niroma: „200-210 and 1000-1050 years seem to be the greatest known oscillation periods in Sun's intensity. They also seem to affect the temperature on Earth.  During the last 400 years there seems to be a great resemblance between Wolfian numbers 221 years apart (the upper limit of the 200-year cycle?).“

Marked rainy periods

Zdeněk Vašků  has published (y.1997) detail analysis of rainy periods of the last millennium. He has pointed to existence of four marked periods (so called “little pluvials” I.-IV.) and predicted existence of the next period in years 1995-2035), see Naše malé pluviály (in Czech). Period well fit into cycle 221 years:

Rainy periods
  Opposition J-U     Rainy period
    -------------------------------------------------

  898.86     898 Nov  5      ?

1119.83  1119 Oct 23  1078-1118 (I.)

1340.85  1340 Oct 27     1310-1350 (II.)

1561.84 1561 Oct 22  1560-1600 (III.)

1782.83 1782 Oct 27  1763-1804 (IV.)

2003.84  2003 Oct 31     1995-2035 (V.)

2224.83  2224 Oct 26     ?

23.10.1119    27.10.1340    22.10.1561
 syst11190813    syst13401027   syst15611022

27.10.1782    31.10.2003    26.10.2224
 syst17821027      syst20031031   syst22241026

Cycle 331.5 years = 2*165.75 years

Orbital period of Neptune corresponds approximately to 12 periods (J,U) and 13 periods (J,N) : 164.77 years: N

Cycle 442 years

Near approaches of Earth and Mars come approximately  in intervals 47 years, 79 years, 205 years (=2*79+47), 284 years (=3*79+47) and so on. In sequence 1119,1198,1403,1482,1561,1640,1845,1924,2003, years 1119, 1561, 2003 (in distance 442 years)  coincide with oppositions J-U. In this years Saturn pass perihelion, period 15*S =15*29.4572 years =441.86 years.

Cycle 554 years

Cycle of solar activity (intensive maxima) observed by J.Schove.

Cycle 884 years

Period 884.1 years  is multiple of period 5*S, 884.1=6*147.35 years, 30*S=30*29.457=883.715 years,  64*(J,U) = 64*13.812 = 883.965 years, 139* I = 139*6.3611 years = 884.193 years. Ratio S/J corresponds to 149/60, so 30*S = 44.5 (J,S) = 74.5 J = 884.1 years.
Oppositions V-ER and at the same time opposition J-U occurs approximately in years: 17.7.235, 31.7.1119, 31.7.2003, 16.9.2887,…



 23.10.1119    22.10.2887
 syst11190813     syst28871022

Cycle 1216 years

According to analysis  in project (Charvatova,Strestik)  is significant climatic period equal to 1214 years. Let us note, that 1215.5 years = 11 * 110.5 years. Exact conjunctions V-E-R do not appear always after c. 300 years, period changes in span c. 298.9-318.2 years (298.9 years ~ 47*6.4-1.88 years, 318.2 years ~ 50*6.4-1.88 years). E.g. we find E-V-R in one line in years 1044.05,1343.00,1661.19,1960.13,2259.09; difference 2259.09-1044.05=1215.04 years.

Cycle 1768 years
According to  1767.4 years: 2*883.7 years=3*589.1 years = 17* 103.96 years = 89 * 19.859 years . (If in conjunctions V-E-R one period of Mars drop out after c. 300 years, it is like one Wolf’s period during 1768 years…)

Stadial cycles

In connection to cycles of ice ages (stadial cycles) mainly triad of periods 550 years–1100 years–1650 years was alluded. Reflection of multiples of c. 280 years period in climatic oscillations (Stacey, Karlstrom,..)

Cycle of 280 years

Five-fold motion of the Sun?
For sidereal periods of outer planets the following equation holds (see Stable resonance ):

 3/J-8/S-2/U+7/N = 0 

Two analogous relations 8/S-3/J=5/G and 7/N-2/U=5/G compose equation (8/S-3/J) - (7/N-2/U) = 0, that holds precisely, at least for average periods. Hence G=267.67-267.78. Is it possible that motion of Sun-J-S makes pentagon instead of trigon (with regard to notional period G…) according to resonance S:J not 5:2, but 8:3 ? With regard to period G=270-285 years synodical periods (S,G):(J,G)  makes ratio 8:3; (J,G)=12.4 years (see P.Kalenda,J.Málek: theory of solar dynamo)  (S,G)=33.0 years (3 Wolf’s cycles).
Indicia for five-fold motion
c. 2003.7 (18.8.2003-31.8.2003) when planets aligned to line according to minimal interaction, spacing of Jupiter and Saturn was  c. 54˚,  i.e. (360˚+180˚) /10. Landscheidt’s five-fold property observation of c. 270-ti years period in tidal theory (see P.Kalenda,J.Málek: theory of solar dynamo) observation of shifts of 180 years cycles with synchronization each  2*270 years (P.Kalenda)


Stacey‘s cycle
Karlstrom‘s stadial cycle
Petterson‘s tidal cycle
Karlstrom's great cycle